News analysis

NDR 2023: Reassurance amid winds of change

Notwithstanding recent controversies, PM Lee’s speech was a timely reminder that Singapore’s destiny is anchored on eternal values and principles.

PM Lee Hsien Loong speaking at the National Day Rally at ITE College Central on Aug 20. ST PHOTO: JASON QUAH

If there is one word to sum up what Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s National Day Rally speech gave, it was reassurance – something we all need this year amid the slew of political scandals, persistent inflation, and concerns about prices of food and housing.

Reassurance was given in five areas: the cost of living, fair and affordable housing, jobs and skills, ageing and retirement adequacy, as well as political integrity and succession.

Before going into some of the highlights, it is worth noting that the National Day Rally (NDR) is seen as the most important political speech of the year.

While its exact substance varies from year to year, it generally covers these key aspects: immediate concerns, as well as medium- and long-term developments, including infrastructure.

For example, in 2022, it was Tuas Port, Changi Airport Terminal 5 and the redevelopment of Paya Lebar.

This year, a significant part was devoted to changes to the public housing model.

When it comes to geopolitics, this part of the speech was low key in 2021, when Singapore was still in the throes of Covid-19. The focus then was more on lower-wage workers and pandemic resilience.

But in 2022, the external environment was given full play, with a sizeable chunk devoted to US-China tensions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the global economy.

This year’s speech started in largely the same vein, with the US-China rivalry, ongoing war in Europe, and a fraying global economic order.

Taken together, the different sections of each year’s speech paint the shifting landscape of Singapore, the external milieu in which it must exercise its choices and constraints, and tackle the changing needs and wants of Singaporeans.

Helping workers and lower- to middle-income Singaporeans

Beyond the substantive announcements, each NDR speech is also about striking a realistic but optimistic tone, acknowledging challenges while taking actionable steps to overcome them.

This year, on employment, PM Lee spoke of a temporary safety net to help workers who lose their jobs. It reinforces what Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong said in April, during the debate on the motion of thanks to the President’s Address in Parliament.

Mr Wong had spoken of a targeted re-employment scheme that seeks to avoid negative outcomes, such as displaced workers finding it more attractive to receive generous benefits than return to the workforce.

Today, there are schemes to help tide senior workers over while they find alternative employment, such as the Employment Assistance Payment.

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But Sunday’s announcement points to the need to also look at other age groups, as well as the larger swathe of professionals, managers, executives and technicians.

This is because retrenchments are no longer associated largely with older workers in sunset industries. Singapore’s workforce is also becoming more diverse, with more people in gig or contract jobs.

The catch, though, is that Singapore’s strong labour market and low unemployment rate mean there is no urgent need for an unemployment benefits scheme in the traditional sense of the word.

This is why PM Lee stressed that it will be a temporary one, and is meant for Singaporeans to upgrade their skills so they can prepare for a good, long-term job.

How such a scheme will be calibrated to incentivise the right behaviours remains to be seen.

Another notable safety net will come in the form of the Majulah Package for those who are 50 and older this year, or what the PM called “young seniors”.

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I was especially cheered by the Earn and Save Bonus, where lower- and middle-income workers will get a Central Provident Fund (CPF) bonus of up to $1,000 a year as long as they are working.

Many Singaporeans would have been exhorted to make cash top-ups or CPF transfers, to enjoy the benefits of compounding interest and grow their retirement savings.

But for lower-income seniors grappling with day-to-day cashflow issues, it may be tough to plan such top-ups, let alone execute them.

This is why an automatic bonus that is contingent on continued employment – rather than placing the onus on the individual to make top-ups themselves – will come as a relief.

Also, the Majulah Package does not replace existing schemes like Silver Support, Workfare Income Supplement and the Matched Retirement Savings Scheme, which PM Lee said will be enhanced, with details to be given next year.

This means that the entire suite of support to lower- and middle-income Singaporeans is expanded, and many will still benefit even if they do not qualify for one or more of the schemes.

Changes to public housing model

PM Lee’s speech also addressed another elephant in the room: Singapore’s greying population.

Together with falling fertility rates, these demographic shifts are increasingly upending expectations that families can shoulder the bulk of caregiving for their elderly family members.

It has been estimated that 83,000 elderly people will be living alone in Singapore by 2030, as compared with the 47,000 seniors aged 65 and older in 2016.

Hence, PM Lee addressed both the preventive and ameliorative strategies needed – from Healthier SG and setting up active ageing centres, to making HDB homes and precincts more senior-friendly.

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While community care apartments are being scaled up in housing estates, the reality today is that not every senior can or wants to live in such homes, which come with a service package with tiered pricing.

Hence, retrofitting existing flats through the expanded Enhancement for Active Seniors 2.0, and making existing estates more pedestrian- and dementia-friendly, are critical.

But beyond having more fittings such as foldable shower seats for seniors living in existing HDB flats, can caregiving services be bundled together for them?

While active ageing centres are useful, the reality is that some seniors do not venture out of their homes, and are not responsive to volunteers who try to engage them.

Can public and/or private providers be mobilised to deliver services directly to them at a reasonable price, subject to means testing?

Another big announcement was the new Plus model for selling HDB flats in choicer locations; and how, eventually, new projects’ locations will no longer be referred to as mature and non-mature estates.

I will leave it to the housing experts to dissect the details. But it’s worth highlighting PM’s explanation for this: In future, many more Build-To-Order (BTO) developments will be in estates or locations that are effectively “mature”, rendering the existing framework unworkable.

“We need a new framework, and this framework has to achieve three important objectives: One, it has to keep home ownership affordable to all income groups. Two, it has to maintain a good social mix in every town and region. And three, it has to keep the system fair for everyone,” he said.

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Singles, too, will be cheered by the fact they will be able to buy two-room flexi flats across all types of BTO projects, instead of only those in non-mature estates.

This will benefit eligible singles who, for example, wish to live closer to their ageing parents or workplaces.

The change will not satisfy singles who have long argued to be allowed to buy flats of larger sizes from the HDB.

But it is a step in the right direction, given the growing proportion of singles across all age groups here in the past 10 years – a trend that is unlikely to slow down.

Integrity and values

In his 2019 National Day Rally speech, PM Lee said “what we talk about, this Government, we will deliver”.

In 2022, he again spoke of leaders who, over three generations, “have worked closely with the people to deliver on sound policies, who have improved all our lives”.

But in the light of recent controversies, some Singaporeans may be questioning not just the manner or success of the Government’s delivery on its promises, but the very bedrock on which the country is founded.

Is the system fair?

Is the Government clean and trustworthy?

Do our politicians hew to the right values?

At the end of his speech, PM Lee reassured Singaporeans that integrity and incorruptibility are fundamental to Singapore.

“No matter the price; no matter the embarrassment or political cost – I will do my utmost to keep the system clean,” he said, stressing that the ideals he had spoken about are not just abstract aspirations, but a compass guiding every decision the Government makes.

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Naturally, some will be sceptical of his position.

But amid the hurly-burly of election season, the NDR is a timely reminder that governing Singapore isn’t some kind of horse race, however exciting such a race may be.

It is a marathon – one that, even as it takes into account changing realities, is undergirded by eternal values, principles and interests, as unfashionable as they may be in these shifting political winds.

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