SINGAPORE - The global maritime industry is in a “golden age of innovation” and can tap a growing range of measures to make deep emissions reductions, but efforts need to pick up speed this decade, a leading industry figure said.

What global shipping does this decade will dictate how successful the maritime industry is in reaching its decarbonisation goals by 2030 and the mid-century, said Mr Knut Orbeck-Nilssen, chief executive of Norway’s DNV Maritime.

DNV is one of the world’s leading certification bodies and an influential adviser for the maritime industry.

“Shipping is demonstrating the capacity to evolve quickly, but this is being driven by the need to decarbonise, which is urgent,” said Mr Orbeck-Nilssen.

“We are in a golden age of innovation where stakeholders across the value chain are experimenting with new technologies,” he told The Straits Times ahead of Thursday’s release of DNV’s Maritime Forecast To 2050 report, which looks at the technologies and regulations that are shaping the sector.

Key drivers for change are the recently agreed emissions reduction goals by the United Nations’ International Maritime Organisation (IMO) and the inclusion of shipping from 2024 in the European Union’s emissions trading scheme, which will set a carbon price on shipping emissions, DNV said in the report.

Cleaner fuels, carbon capture and storage, wind power, more efficient port operations, and eventually nuclear are just some of the options for the industry, which has long been criticised as a climate laggard.

The sector emits more than one billion tonnes of greenhouse gases annually, or about 3 per cent of the global emissions caused by human activities, the EU says.

In July, the 175 member nations of the IMO agreed to reach net-zero emissions “by or around” 2050.

They also agreed to “indicative checkpoints” to reduce the total annual greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping by at least 20 per cent – “striving” for 30 per cent – by 2030, compared with 2008.

Members agreed to reduce emissions by at least 70 per cent by 2040, and strive for 80 per cent, compared with 2008 levels.

To get there, the industry needs to urgently focus on energy efficiency measures to cut emissions, with the uptake of cleaner fuels expected to take time, the report said.

“Energy efficiency measures account for a third of emissions reductions by 2050,” said Mr Eirik Ovrum, lead author of the report and principal consultant at DNV Maritime.

Mr Orbeck-Nilssen said wind-assisted propulsion is achieving fuel savings of between 5 per cent and 9 per cent, and this could improve further.

Speed reductions, choosing alternative routes and limiting waiting times in ports can also help.

Currently, only 0.1 per cent of fuels used by merchant shipping are biofuels, while 99.9 per cent are fossil fuels, said the report.

It highlighted the large opportunity for biofuels and other low-carbon alternatives, such as green ammonia and green methanol, once their production is eventually scaled up.

But DNV notes that shipping will be competing with other sectors for these fuels.

It estimates that the demand from shipping will be 30 per cent to 40 per cent of the total world supply of carbon-neutral fuels by 2030.

The estimated demand for carbon-neutral fuel in shipping is 17 million tonnes of oil-equivalent in 2030.

DNV said the fuel technology transition is already under way, with half the ordered tonnage capable of using liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas or methanol in dual-fuel engines, compared with one-third of the tonnage on order in 2022.

The total number of ships on order is around 5,300, DNV said.

The total number of ships in operation is around 112,000, while the ocean-going fleet is around 56,000 vessels, with the latter forecast to increase by about 1,600 vessels a year to 2030.

For ships in operation, 6.2 per cent of tonnage can now operate on alternative fuels, compared with 5.5 per cent in 2022.

The report notes that more vessels are installing air lubrication, which releases jets of air bubbles along the bottom of the hull, providing a cushion of air that reduces drag on the vessel and fuel use.

Such systems have been installed on or ordered for more than 250 vessels, DNV said.

Still, the majority of new-build ships will be reliant on fossil fuels.

DNV looked at the viability of onboard capture and storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and nuclear propulsion as cost-effective ways of cutting emissions.

“These are two technologies that hold some potential but are not ready yet,” said Mr Orbeck-Nilssen.

The study found that on-board carbon capture can be operationally feasible and based its assessment on a ship capable of carrying 15,000 20-foot containers.

The vessel would capture 70 per cent of the CO2 emissions and store it on board for discharge at specific ports.

But the infrastructure to handle and safely store the CO2 to ensure it is not released back into the air needs to be developed.

The authors also found that nuclear propulsion, using small modular reactors, can compete with other decarbonisation strategies if reactor costs are in the lower range of historical capital expenditure for land-based nuclear power plants.

But this technology is still some years away and public concerns need to be addressed, Mr Orbeck-Nilssen said.

The report also said green shipping corridors should be accelerated because they can speed the uptake of carbon-neutral fuels.

“It’s much easier to get from point A to point B between two nations rather than trying to start this off internationally everywhere in one go,” Mr Orbeck-Nilssen said.

Singapore has signed a number of memorandums of understanding for green and digital shipping corridors, including with the Port of Rotterdam, the Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach, and is aiming to establish a green shipping corridor with Australia by end-2025.

In addition to green shipping corridors and digitalisation of trade and port operations, the Republic is looking to become a bunkering hub for green ammonia, and in late July conducted its first methanol bunkering operation.

“Singapore is like a stepping stone to the future for shipping,” said Mr Orbeck-Nilssen.