Recap: How Indonesia’s polling day unfolded

JAKARTA – The third time was indeed the charm for Mr Prabowo Subianto, after unofficial results indicated he had won Indonesia’s presidential polls on Feb 14 following two failed attempts for the top job.

The Defence Minister and his running mate, Mr Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who is President Joko Widodo’s son, soared past the simple majority mark of 50 per cent to avoid a run-off vote, according to quick count tallies from independent survey agencies.

Official results, which will not be known until March, are not expected to differ significantly.

The pair’s victory defied predictions made by analysts that the election would go to a June 26 run-off when their electability ratings stagnated at above 40 per cent as Polling Day drew closer.

Just days before the election, however, surveys by two credible agencies showed the ticket garnering nearly 52 per cent of the vote.

Mr Prabowo’s camp also talked up the prospect of a single-round election weeks before, and hyped up the slogan “All in Prabowo-Gibran” on social media.

Unofficial quick count tallies on Feb 14 showed them trouncing their opponents – the pairings of former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan with Muslim party politician Muhaimin Iskandar, and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo with former law and security minister Mahfud MD – by garnering nearly 60 per cent of the vote.

Analysts say Mr Prabowo, 72, owes much of his success to Mr Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, who, with the win in the bag, can expect a handsome political reward.

After all, the immensely popular outgoing President had campaigned for his political foe-turned-friend, though he never said outright whom he was backing.

But he made a recent visit to the hotly contested election battleground of Central Java, where he and Mr Prabowo tucked into a meal of meatball soup together at a street stall in full view of the public. Days earlier, he had argued that sitting presidents were allowed by law to pick sides in presidential elections.

Mr Made Supriatma, an ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute visiting fellow, said that Mr Widodo and his family would be in a position to “ask for bigger concessions”, including a prominent economic role granted to Mr Gibran in overseeing Jakarta, and portfolios in a number of strategic ministries for Mr Widodo’s loyalists.

“That is why Jokowi really wants this election to finish in only one round. The argument (the government) presented to the public is that a single-round election would translate to savings for the state budget.

“But behind this argument is a power calculation that a single-round election would count as an absolute victory for Jokowi,” Mr Made told The Straits Times.

Mr Widodo’s critics warn that the President, whose approval ratings continue to hover above 70 per cent, used the single-round victory to deliver the message that he is still a step ahead of everyone.

“President Jokowi has proven that he still maintains a strong influence in the presidential election. The implication of this victory is that Jokowi is strong,” Mr Made said.

The immediate challenges for Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran, 36, will be to fend off accusations of election fraud and questions about the legitimacy of the outcome from their rivals.

While television broadcasts and social media have been flooded with congratulatory cheers from Mr Prabowo’s supporters, there were also plenty of jeers amid accusations of ethical violations by his detractors.

Analysts see the losing camps challenging the quick count outcome at the Constitutional Court in the coming weeks, bringing to attention what they deem to be unfair practices that helped secure support for the winning pair, such as the distribution of government social aid, including essential items, by Mr Widodo during campaigning.

Shortly after several quick count polls were published, the campaign teams of both Mr Anies and Mr Ganjar claimed to have evidence of election fraud.

Mr Surya Tjandra, a spokesman for the Anies Baswedan campaign team, told ST: “We can say the hope for change is clearly here in Indonesia, but it is not reflected (in the vote results) because there have been distortions, such as the use of state apparatus to direct votes for Mr Prabowo, the politicisation of social aid and the use of intimidation.”

Mr Yoes Kenawas, a research fellow at Atma Jaya Catholic University, said: “There is a big possibility that the losing candidates will try to challenge the validity of the victory, questioning the massive, structured and systematic actions which they believe might have benefited Mr Prabowo.”

They may push for the pair’s disqualification if their suspicions are confirmed by the court but if proven otherwise, they will accept the result and admit defeat, said Mr Yoes.

He added: “Mr Ganjar and Mr Anies are rational people who will not mobilise the masses to carry out unconstitutional actions that violate the law.”

After the storm has subsided, Mr Prabowo will also have to reconcile a nation polarised by differing opinions and choices of candidates, analysts say.

While analysts have praised Mr Widodo for improving infrastructure and social welfare in South-east Asia’s largest nation and economy, they have also accused him of turning his back on human rights abuses, corruption and upholding democracy.

The Constitutional Court ruled in October 2023 that the minimum age requirement of 40 for Indonesia’s presidential and vice-presidential candidates does not apply to anyone who is an elected regional leader, thereby allowing Mr Gibran, who is Solo Mayor, to contest the election.

The Chief Justice, who is Mr Gibran’s uncle, was subsequently removed by an ethics panel for failing to recuse himself and for making last-minute changes to election candidacy requirements.

In recent weeks, democracy activists, students and university lecturers have expressed their anger over what they deemed to be worsening democratic standards, bringing up issues of unethical, corrupt and nepotistic practices in the country.

Dr Ambang Priyonggo, a political analyst from Multimedia Nusantara University, said Mr Prabowo’s Gerindra party stands strongly for non-elitism, supports the establishment and speaks for the common people.

“As the leader of the Gerindra party, it is likely that Prabowo will try to implement a more centralised government.

“He will try to embrace all parties with the aim of eliminating opposition, using nationalism as a hook to persuade the elites to negotiate in the interest of the people,” he told ST.

He added: “This is his way of subtly co-opting his political opponents so that no other power becomes dominant.”