JAKARTA – The incoming leaders of Singapore and Indonesia must work on their “budding” relationship if they want to keep the momentum of their predecessors going and develop bilateral ties further, say observers.

They add that the proximity of the two countries and the turbulent external environment mean that Singapore’s next prime minister and Indonesia’s next president will likely push for even warmer personal ties to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes.

Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is set to take over from Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on May 15, while Mr Prabowo Subianto will replace President Joko Widodo in October.

The Singapore-Indonesia Leaders’ Retreat on April 29 will be the first time that DPM Wong and Mr Prabowo are officially meeting in their capacity as government heads-to-be since the latter won the Indonesia election on Feb 14.

As defence minister for almost five years, Mr Prabowo is familiar to Singapore leaders, having participated in bilateral meetings and global forums like Asean, the Shangri-La Dialogue and the Group of 20 (G-20).

Mr Dedi Dinarto, lead Indonesia analyst at strategic advisory firm Global Counsel, said: “Mr Prabowo, an Indonesian political heavyweight, is widely recognised among Singaporean policymakers, while Mr Wong, having closely collaborated with Indonesian counterparts during the challenging times of the Covid-19 pandemic, commands respect among Indonesian policymakers.”

To be sure, more work will have to be put in by both sides to keep the good state of relations going, and for the two new leaders to get to know each other better, other observers point out.

Singapore Management University associate professor of law Eugene Tan said that the relationship between the two incoming leaders is a new and untested one.

He noted that establishing familiarity will take time, and the two men will have to be comfortable with each other and be mindful of the domestic concerns as well as international pressures.

“Singapore is sensitive to the imperative to working closely and working well with Indonesia, and will seek to have Indonesia aligned on that,” said Prof Tan.

“Indonesia will have to see Singapore as an equal, even though the temptation and realpolitik may be to lean towards an abang-adik (older-younger brother) relationship.”

A “bromance” between DPM Wong and Mr Prabowo, if one could bud, would be crucial in developing Indonesia-Singapore relations, which in turn is pivotal for regional stability, said Dr Mustafa Izzuddin.

He is a senior international affairs analyst at policy and business consultancy Solaris Strategies Singapore.

Dr Mustafa and other observers said that trade and investment will remain priority areas, as well as defence and security.

In 2023, Singapore recorded US$15.4 billion (S$20.9 billion) of foreign direct investment into the archipelago, and bilateral trade reached US$69 billion that year.

Both countries are also among each other’s top sources of visitor arrivals. Singapore welcomed 2.3 million tourists from Indonesia in 2023, while Indonesia saw 1.4 million tourists from Singapore that year.

When asked about the working styles of DPM Wong and Mr Prabowo, and how different they might be from their predecessors, Dr Mustafa said the two men come from different generations and may need to fine-tune their style of working for each other.

Mr Wong is 51 years old, while Mr Prabowo is 72. The age difference means that the pair will have to develop their own chemistry from the get-go, said Prof Tan.

“Even as ties are rich and diverse, it is worth considering establishing something similar to a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ to take bilateral ties to an unprecedented level of cooperation then,” he said.

This could take the form of government-to-government projects similar to those that Singapore and China have, including the ones in Suzhou and Tianjin, he added.

Prof Tan pointed out that in September 2027, both countries will celebrate 60 years of the establishment of formal diplomatic relations, and both leaders could embark on a plan to mark this milestone.

The decades of efforts that have gone into the bilateral ties provide a firm foundation for the men to work with, and they will make sure this continues, said Mr Dedi.

A notable aspect of Singapore-Indonesia relations is the mutual drive to explore and address “sources of discord”, he said, giving the example of how in recent years, thorny issues have been resolved.

Three landmark pacts inked in 2022, which deal with airspace management, defence cooperation and extradition, officially came into force on March 21, in a major milestone for bilateral relations.

Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan told Singapore media on April 26 that he could not “overstate the significance” of the agreements, and held up how resolving these longstanding issues was a major achievement.

“Regardless of who assumes leadership roles in Singapore and Indonesia, they will undoubtedly recognise the mutual dependence between the two nations, providing a solid foundation for continued exploration of potential cooperation in the future,” said Mr Dedi.