Coronavirus: Germans question how long they can sustain a lockdown

A humanoid robot named "Pepper" reminding customers at a German supermarket to keep a safe distance from one another to minimise the transmission of the coronavirus.
A humanoid robot named "Pepper" reminding customers at a German supermarket to keep a safe distance from one another to minimise the transmission of the coronavirus. PHOTO: EPA-EFE

Officially, German politicians display a sense of calm and authority as the country grapples with the coronavirus outbreak. Behind the scenes, however, an intense battle is taking place over how long the country can sustain a lockdown.

With every passing week, new alarming reports are surfacing about the damage from the economic standstill.

While some politicians are already speculating about a possible exit date, others have vowed that existing strict measures have to be tightened even further.

German economists unanimously expect a major recession, with figures from the renowned Munich Ifo Institute showing a downswing of more than 20 per cent in the worst-case scenario.

Germany's economy ranks No. 4 globally, behind the United States, China and Japan.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in a statement this week painted a bleak picture for the whole of Europe.

"Covid-19 has struck Europe with stunning ferocity. While we do not know how long the crisis will last, we know that the economic impact will be severe," said the statement posted on IMF's website. "A deep European recession this year is a foregone conclusion," it added.

The German Ethics Council, an independent panel of experts working on societal questions, in a recent paper to the Ministry of Health warned against "a breakdown of the whole system of the market economy". It urged the government to constantly review the measures. The public needed to know "under what circumstances the way back to normalcy can be taken", said the council.

Dr Alexander Dibelius, long-time head of the investment firm Goldman Sachs in Germany who since 2015 is also managing partner of CVC, a private equity company, went even further.

He said in an interview: "Is it right that 10 per cent of the population is being spared, but 90 per cent, including the entire national economy, is extremely hampered, with possibly dramatic consequences for the basis of our general prosperity which will be massively eroded?"

Dr Dibelius also warned: "For centuries we have fought for our individual freedoms at all levels, for laws and human rights. And all of a sudden, much of this is simply wiped away practically overnight."

The German Ethics Council echoed his sentiment, saying decision-making should not be delegated to virologists or other medical experts. The elected representatives of the people ought to be in charge, said the council.

In fact, many Germans are puzzled by the scope and pace of the restrictions and interference in personal freedoms that have resulted from the measures.

A contact ban, in place for around 10 days, is confining most citizens and other residents to their homes. For now, the ban is set for two weeks, but it almost certainly will be extended or even turned into a curfew if the effects are insufficient to curb the virus outbreak.

The legal basis for the measures is the German infection protection law. The provisions under the law, however, are supposed to be in place only temporarily.

Experts are beginning to debate over what a temporary time frame should be.

Afraid of being challenged in court, Parliament has swiftly amended the legislation, significantly extending the powers of the executive.

Another contentious issue has been the use of mobile data.

Tapping into people's location data on their mobile phones to trace who has come into contact with those infected will almost certainly ignite a new debate on civil liberties.

Germany has some of the strictest privacy laws in the world. The topic is particularly sensitive given the role of the secret police during the Nazi era as well as in the former East Germany. The police then were spying extensively on the citizens.

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on April 01, 2020, with the headline Coronavirus: Germans question how long they can sustain a lockdown. Subscribe